- Gold price trades with mild negative bias in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- The cautious approach from Fed officials weighs on precious metals.
- Gold traders will monitor the FOMC Minutes and Fed’s Goolsbee speech.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a negative note on Wednesday after retreating from a record high on Monday. Members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) warned that the US central bank needed much more convincing that inflation was easing before it could begin cutting interest rates, emphasizing the Fed is likely to keep rates higher for longer. This, in turn, might boost the Greenback and weigh the USD-denominated gold lower.
Nonetheless, the yellow metal’s downside might be limited amid the renewed US-China trade tensions, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the strong demand from central banks and Asian buyers, which might provide some support to the yellow metal. Later on Wednesday, gold traders will keep an eye on FOMC Minutes, along with the Fed’s Goolsbee speech.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price edges lower as uncertainties over US interest rates persisted
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he does not think further rate hikes will be necessary, adding he will need some convincing data before he backs cuts anytime soon.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that the US central bank has to be cautious about the first-rate move. Bostic further stated that he would “rather wait longer for a rate cut to be sure inflation does not start to bounce around.”
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that keeping rates restrictive is not a concern right now given the strength of the jobs market.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that progress toward a lower interest rate adjustment will take longer.
- Financial markets expect the first cut to happen in September at the earliest, with two reductions of a quarter percentage point before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
- On Tuesday, the US officially announced tariff hikes on a wide range of Chinese goods, while China may consider increasing temporary tariff rates on imported cars equipped with large-displacement engines.
Technical Analysis: Gold price’s picture remains positive
Gold price trades with a mild negative bias on the day. XAU/USD has formed an ascending trend channel since the beginning of May. Technically, the yellow metal maintains the constructive outlook unchanged as it holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour timeframe. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the bullish zone around 63.00, suggesting that further upside looks favorable for the time being.
The first upside target for the precious metal will emerge near an all-time high of $2,450. A bullish breakout above this level will see a rally to the upper boundary of an ascending trend channel at $2,465, en route to the $2,500 psychological barrier.
In the bearish case, the lower limit of the ascending trend channel and round mark in the $2,400–$2,405 zone act as an initial support level for XAU/USD. Further south, the downside target to watch is a high of May 10 of $2,378, followed by the 100-period EMA of $2,364.
US Dollar price in the last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.34% | -0.98% | -0.06% | -0.66% | -0.08% | -1.22% | 0.55% | |
EUR | 0.35% | -0.62% | 0.28% | -0.31% | 0.27% | -0.87% | 0.88% | |
GBP | 0.96% | 0.63% | 0.90% | 0.32% | 0.89% | -0.25% | 1.52% | |
CAD | 0.06% | -0.28% | -0.90% | -0.57% | -0.01% | -1.16% | 0.59% | |
AUD | 0.64% | 0.30% | -0.32% | 0.59% | 0.57% | -0.56% | 1.18% | |
JPY | 0.08% | -0.27% | -0.91% | 0.01% | -0.56% | -1.14% | 0.60% | |
NZD | 1.21% | 0.86% | 0.25% | 1.14% | 0.57% | 1.14% | 1.73% | |
CHF | -0.54% | -0.88% | -1.51% | -0.60% | -1.18% | -0.61% | -1.76% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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