- Gold rebounds from daily lows, propelled by a sharp drop in US consumer sentiment and future economic outlook.
- High US Treasury yields weren’t an excuse for Gold’s advance.
- US consumers expect inflation to remain above 3% over a one-year period.
- Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, with mixed signals from different Fed governors.
Gold prices advanced sharply late in the North American session on Friday, up by more than 1% despite US Treasury bond yields remaining high. A University of Michigan (UoM) survey showed that Americans had become pessimistic about the economy as Consumer Sentiment plunged to its lowest level in six months.
The XAU/USD trades at $2,369 after bouncing off daily lows of $2,343. Friday’s sentiment data and the weaker labor market figures revealed since the beginning of May paint a gloomy outlook for the economy of the United States (US). Although fears of a pronounced economic slowdown remain low, market participants seeking safety drove the golden metal and the US Dollar higher.
Federal Reserve officials continued to cross newswires. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic remained hawkish, saying the Fed is on track to just one rate cut in 2024. Later, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that policy needs to be kept “steady” and doesn’t see rate cuts as warranted this year. The Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan disregarded the idea of cutting interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari has recently said he is in “wait and see mode” about future monetary policy.
Next week, the US docket will feature the release of inflation figures, retail sales, building permits and Fed speeches.
Daily digest market movers: Gold strengthens as US data increases Fed rate cut hopes
- Gold prices fell amid lower US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar. The US 10-year Treasury note yields 4.504% and gained almost five basis points (bps) from its opening level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against six other currencies, rose 0.12% to 105.32.
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index significantly declined in May, falling from 77.2 in April to 67.4 and did not meet the analysts’ expectations of 76. Joanne Hsu, the Director of the UoM Survey, highlighted that the 10-point drop is statistically significant and marks the lowest level of consumer sentiment recorded in approximately six months.
- Additionally, inflation expectations have escalated. Inflation expectations rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in May for the one-year outlook. Over a 10-year period, expectations increased slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%.
- Softer-than-expected labor market figures, as shown by last month’s US employment report and unemployment claims data, may exert pressure on the Fed. Officials recognized that the risks to achieving the Fed’s dual mandate of fostering maximum employment and price stability have become more balanced over the past year.
- After the data release, Fed rate cut probabilities increased from around 33 basis points (bps) to 34 bps points of rate cuts toward the end of 2024.
Technical analysis: Gold price resumes its uptrend, climbs above $2,350
Gold remains bullishly biased even though it retreated some 6% from its all-time high of $2,431, hit on April 12. Momentum shows that buyers are gathering steam, which is visible in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifting bullish since the start of May.
XAU/USD buyers cleared the April 26 high at $2,352. Despite that, Gold has consolidated at around $2,360-$2,378, with buyers unable to test the $2,400 figure. Once cleared, the next stop would be the April 19 high at $2,417, followed by the all-time high of $2,431.
Conversely, further losses are seen if Gold slides beneath the $2,300 mark. The next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,249.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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